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What is a Risk Bowtie Analysis?
- 2 hours ago
- 4 min read
If you've ever tried to build a risk register or complete an incident investigation and felt like the pieces didn’t quite line up – you’re not alone. Traditional risk assessments often focus on the event itself or the consequence, but rarely do they give us a clear line of sight into why an unwanted event occurred. They tend to lump all controls together, often making it hard to identify the ones that truly matter – the ones that must work to prevent fatalities or serious harm.
So what is a Bowtie Risk Analysis? A simple but powerful tool that helps us visually map out the causal pathways that lead to an unwanted event and the escalation paths that can make things worse. And unlike traditional methods, the bowtie focuses on what matters most – the causes.
A Quick History of Bowtie Analysis
Bowtie analysis first emerged in the 1970s and was later formalised by Shell in the 1990s. It was originally developed as a barrier-based safety tool in high-risk industries like oil and gas, where the stakes were literally life and death.
Since then, the bowtie method has spread across mining, aviation, chemical processing, defence, and more. Today, we’re seeing it move into broader industries including health, aged care, construction, and even small businesses – because every workplace faces critical risks.
What is Bowtie Risk Analysis?
At its core, bowtie analysis is a visual risk tool. It shows you how an unwanted event can happen and, if it does happen, how it can escalate to its maximum potential consequence.
Here’s how it works:
On the left side, you map the causes that could lead to the unwanted event.
In the centre, you identify the unwanted event itself.
On the right side, you map the consequences that could result.
Across both sides, you place controls – some to prevent the event from happening, and some to reduce the harm if it does.
The outcome is a simple visual that anyone can understand – from the frontline to the boardroom.
Why Traditional Risk Assessments Fall Short
Most businesses have a risk register. Some even have bowties. But here’s the problem, traditional risk assessments usually focus on generic hazards and consequences. Controls are listed in bulk – and they’re rarely linked to specific causes. It becomes hard to tell which controls are critical and which are simply good practice.
Worse still, traditional assessments can completely miss certain causes, leaving gaps in your control framework without anyone realising.
A common example? Listing the unwanted event as simply “fire” – without breaking it down into fire in electrical rooms, fire in plant cabins, or fire in chemical storage areas. This makes your controls vague and your investigations hard to connect back to the original risk assessment.
Bowtie Analysis Helps Us Focus on What Matters
Bowtie analysis shifts the focus away from just the risk or the consequence – and puts it squarely on the causes. This gives you:
Clear visibility of the causal pathways that could lead to an event
Better ability to identify critical controls – the few that matter most
A structure that matches your incident investigation process
A real tool for preventing unwanted events, not just reacting to them
When developed properly, a bowtie reads from left to right and tells the full story: How an event can occur, and if it does, how bad it could get.
A Must-Have for Critical Risks
If your organisation is managing critical or fatal risks – and most are – bowtie analysis isn’t optional. It’s essential. Bowties should be developed at the same level of detail your investigations drill into. If your incident reports capture control failures, procedural breaches, and organisational weaknesses, then your bowtie should be just as specific.
For example, “fire” is too vague. “Fire in chemical storage area” gives you a much stronger starting point for analysing causes and identifying meaningful controls.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
It’s easy to fall into the trap of creating high-level bowties that don’t reflect real-world scenarios. Watch out for:
Vague unwanted events like “explosion” or “injury”
Missing causal pathways that lead to the event
Controls that don’t match causes or that are too generic
A bowtie is not just a picture. It’s a working model of how things can go wrong – and how we prevent them from going wrong.
Introducing Our 2-Hour Online Workshop: Introduction to Bowtie Analysis
We’ve designed a practical, no-fluff workshop to help you or your team get started with bowtie risk analysis – the right way.
Who is this for?
WHS professionals
Auditors and risk managers
Supervisors and control owners
Anyone responsible for critical risk management
What you’ll learn:
How to build a bowtie from scratch
How to break events down into causes and consequences
How to identify and assign critical controls
How to link bowties to incident investigations and CCVs
Real-world examples from mining, health, and small business sectors
Delivered online via Zoom, this 2-hour session will leave you with practical tools you can apply immediately in your workplace.
Before You Go – Ask Yourself:
Before you create another high-level risk assessment or complete an incident report… can you see how that unwanted event occurs? Can you name the causes and the few critical controls that must work to stop it?
Have you ever listed every hazard control under the sun and still wondered what’s actually critical? That’s exactly why you need this workshop.
Need something tailored to your industry?
We also offer in-house workshops and critical risk services. Contact us to learn more.