Velocity: Why Speed Matters in Risk Management

When people think about risk, they focus only on likelihood and consequence. But there's another critical factor that deserves attention: Risk Velocity.

What is Risk Velocity?

Risk Velocity refers to how quickly a risk event escalates from the point of control failure to causing harm or reaching its full impact. In other words, it's the speed at which a risk unfolds once controls fail or weaknesses are exposed.

Unlike likelihood and consequence, which measure the probability and severity of a risk, velocity measures how fast things go wrong. And when it comes to high-consequence activities, speed can be just as important as severity.

Why Risk Velocity Matters

In many cases, risk assessments focus only on how likely an event is to occur and how severe the consequences might be. But without considering velocity, you might miss critical aspects of your risk management strategy.

Fast-moving risks are particularly dangerous because they offer little to no reaction time. By the time you detect the failure, it may already be too late to prevent harm.

Examples of high-velocity risks include:

Explosions or structural collapses in industrial settings.
Cybersecurity breaches where sensitive information is quickly accessed and exploited.
Acute chemical exposures where harmful substances rapidly affect health.
Medical emergencies such as cardiac arrest, where immediate intervention is critical.

In these scenarios, risk velocity determines how effective your response will be. If your controls and response systems aren't designed with speed in mind, you’re setting yourself up for failure.

Assessing Risk Velocity

Unlike likelihood and consequence, risk velocity isn’t always easy to quantify. However, you can assess it by asking questions like:

How quickly would the risk event escalate if controls fail?
What is the window of time between control failure and harm occurring?
How effectively can your organisation respond within that timeframe?
What early warning systems are in place to detect potential control failures?

One of the common errors we see is a work site does not know how long it would take an ambulance or fire truck to arrive. Or if they do know, they are not equipped with enough resources to control the incident before emergency services arrive.

Mapping out risk velocity is particularly important for high-consequence activities where speed of escalation directly affects the outcome.

Enhancing Controls for High-Velocity Risks

Understanding risk velocity helps you design better controls. This often involves:

Engineering Controls: Building automatic shutdown systems or alarms that trigger instantly when a threshold is breached.
Digital Monitoring Systems: Implementing real-time monitoring tools that can detect rapid changes and alert decision-makers immediately.
Early Warning Systems: Implementing early warning systems to ensure planning and response is adequate.
Training and Drills: Ensuring workers are prepared to respond quickly and effectively to fast-moving risks.
Layered Controls: Combining preventative and mitigating controls to ensure a swift response even if the first line of defence fails.

Practical Example: Electrical Work Near Overhead Powerlines

Imagine working near live overhead powerlines. The potential for harm is high, but the velocity of the risk is what makes it even more dangerous.

If a worker accidentally contacts a live powerline, the consequences can be instantaneous and catastrophic. The speed at which harm occurs leaves no room for administrative controls like training or PPE to act as effective barriers.

Instead, the most effective measures are those that stop the hazard before it can cause harm—such as isolation (de-energizing the line), engineering controls (proximity warning systems), and preventative planning.

Incorporating Risk Velocity into Your Risk Assessments

When conducting risk assessments, it's essential to consider not only how likely and severe a risk is but also how fast it can escalate. This is particularly important for high-consequence activities where traditional controls may not be effective on their own.

I recently saw a brilliant example of this in action. A site that was conducting simultaneous high-risk confined space work had the emergency response teams at each work site, at the ready, equipment in-hand. Obviously, they were not planning for anything to go wrong, however understanding how quickly the situation escalates when something does go wrong, ensured they had trained resources and equipment ready to go.

Questions to ask during your risk assessment process:

Does this risk have the potential to escalate quickly?
Are our controls designed to respond effectively within that timeframe?
What additional engineering solutions can we implement to reduce risk velocity?

Velocity: Why Speed Matters in Risk Management

Understanding risk velocity can be a game-changer for your risk management strategy. It forces you to think beyond the likelihood and consequence model and consider how speed influences your ability to respond effectively.